Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
