Just eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or the source of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard query to address. History, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, while the victories have piled up.
Per Opta, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have just won 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
